Bloomberg analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart have evaluated the likelihood of an XRP ETF gaining approval from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Their analysis, shared via social media, highlights key factors influencing the potential approval of cryptocurrency ETFs, with a focus on XRP, Solana, Litecoin, and Dogecoin.
XRP ETF Approval Odds: 65%
Asset managers like Grayscale, Bitwise, and 21Shares have submitted S-1 registration statements and Form 19b-4 filings for XRP ETFs to the SEC via exchanges such as Nasdaq and Cboe. Despite these filings, the SEC has yet to formally acknowledge them. The deadline for a decision is October 17, 2025.
Balchunas and Seyffart estimate a 65% chance of approval for XRP ETFs, citing the SEC’s current stance that XRP is not classified as a commodity. This contrasts with a 2023 federal court ruling that overturned the SEC’s earlier classification of XRP as a security.
👉 Why XRP’s regulatory clarity could boost ETF approval
Higher Approval Odds for Other Altcoin ETFs
Litecoin (LTC): 90%
The SEC recognizes Litecoin as a commodity and has acknowledged its 19b-4 filings, making LTC ETFs the frontrunner for approval.
Dogecoin (DOGE): 75%
Though the SEC hasn’t acknowledged DOGE’s filings, its commodity status strengthens its prospects.
Solana (SOL): 70%
Despite the SEC’s non-commodity view of Solana (similar to XRP), analysts remain optimistic due to market demand.
| Cryptocurrency | ETF Approval Odds | SEC Classification |
|---|---|---|
| Litecoin (LTC) | 90% | Commodity |
| Dogecoin (DOGE) | 75% | Commodity |
| Solana (SOL) | 70% | Not a Commodity |
| XRP | 65% | Not a Commodity |
Factors That Could Improve XRP ETF Approval Chances
- SEC Acknowledgment of Filings: If the SEC reviews XRP’s 19b-4 forms, odds may rise.
- Regulatory Clarity: The SEC’s Crypto Task Force aims to resolve ongoing lawsuits by 2025, potentially reevaluating XRP’s status.
- Market Sentiment: Polymarket bettors currently peg approval odds at 81%, reflecting trader optimism.
👉 How SEC policy shifts could impact crypto ETFs
FAQs
1. What is an XRP ETF?
An XRP ETF would allow investors to trade XRP-backed assets on traditional stock exchanges without directly holding the cryptocurrency.
2. Why does the SEC’s commodity classification matter?
ETFs tied to commodities (like Bitcoin or Litecoin) face fewer regulatory hurdles than those tied to securities.
3. When will the SEC decide on XRP ETFs?
The deadline for a decision is October 17, 2025, but the SEC could act sooner.
4. How accurate are Bloomberg’s predictions?
Balchunas and Seyffart correctly predicted Bitcoin ETF approvals in 2024, lending credibility to their analysis.
5. What other cryptos might get ETFs?
Litecoin and Dogecoin are top contenders due to their commodity status.
6. Can retail investors influence ETF approvals?
While public comments are considered, approvals hinge on regulatory and legal factors.