Key Investment Highlights
Core Perspectives
- Timing Insights: The next wave of trends in key sectors is expected in Q3 2025
- Enterprise AI: ToB AI commercialization will see phased adoption, with second-wave clients emerging after initial deployments.
- Autonomous Driving: Companies like Ruiming Technology and Black Sesame Technologies may achieve breakthroughs in European OEM markets and vehicle models.
- Financial IT: Regulatory changes in stablecoins and fintech innovations will drive growth.
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AI Infrastructure: Domestic AI chip and server manufacturers will benefit from smart computing center deployments.
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Priority Sectors:
- AI Applications: Multimodal models and cost reductions accelerate industry adoption.
- HarmonyOS Ecosystem: Expanding beyond mobile to PCs with unique interconnectivity features.
- Autonomous Driving: BYD’s mass adoption signals penetration into mid/low-tier vehicles.
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Stablecoins: Regulatory frameworks in Hong Kong and the U.S. foster institutional adoption.
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Market Expectations: Underestimated potential in firms like Kingdee International and StoneWise due to delayed B2B monetization.
Market Review (Jan–Jun 2025)
- Computer Sector: +8.8%
- CSI 300: +0.3%
- ChiNext: -1.3%
Valuations remain below historical peaks despite recent software rebounds.
Focus Sectors
1. AI Models & Tools: GenAI Penetration Drives Demand
- Trends: OpenAI and Google lead in advanced reasoning and multimodal capabilities. Domestic models (DeepSeek, Doubao) now match global peers.
- Commercialization: Tokens processed by Gemini grew 50x YoY, while AI-enhanced cloud revenue surged (Azure: +33% YoY).
- Domestic Growth: ByteDance’s Doubao handles 16.4T daily tokens, led by education and programming use cases.
👉 Explore AI’s impact on cloud computing
FAQs:
Q: How are AI costs trending?
A: DeepSeek’s innovations cut inference costs by 40%, enabling wider enterprise adoption.
Q: What’s next for AI agents?
A: Platforms like Manus automate complex tasks (e.g., resume screening) with offline processing.
2. Enterprise Software: Structural Opportunities
- ERP: SAP dominates high-end markets (¥10.3B China revenue), but local players like Kingdee (+¥1.3B) are gaining.
- Industrial Tools: CAD/CAE firms (ZWSoft, Empyrean) boost R&D to close gaps with Dassault/Siemens.
- AI Integration: Generative design and dynamic scheduling are top investment areas.
Table: AI + Industrial Software Growth
| Metric | 2024 | 2029 (Projected) | CAGR |
|—————–|——–|——————|——-|
| Market Size | ¥31.8B | ¥76.5B | 19% |
| AI Penetration | 9% | 22% | 41.4% |
3. Financial IT: Stablecoins & Payments
- Regulation: Hong Kong’s Stablecoin Ordinance (May 2025) and U.S. GENIUS Act mandate 100% reserves.
- Payment Leaders: Newland (cross-border) and LACARA (100+ countries) expand globally.
- Banking IT: DeepSeek powers smart CRM and compliance tools at ICBC and China Merchants Bank.
👉 Learn about stablecoin regulations
4. HarmonyOS: PC Breakthrough
- Launch: Huawei’s MateBook Pro (May 2025) runs native HarmonyOS 5, with 1,000+ apps.
- Ecosystem: ISVs like SoftStone develop SwanLinkOS for X86 platforms.
5. Autonomous Driving: Tier-1 Suppliers Shine
- Adoption: L2++ penetration hits 12.6% (+5.3pp YoY), led by ¥100K–200K vehicles (+2000% YoY).
- Chips: Domestic players (Black Sesame) gain amid U.S. export controls.
- Robotics: Autonomous tech spills over into humanoid robots (e.g., “Dexterous Hand” project).
FAQs:
Q: Which segments outperform?
A: Chipmakers and integrated suppliers (Desay SV) benefit from scale.
Q: Risks?
A: Price wars and geopolitics may pressure margins.
Conclusion
Q3 2025 marks an inflection point for AI, fintech, and smart mobility. Focus on firms with:
1. Commercialized AI (e.g., Kingdee, DeepSeek)
2. Regulatory tailwinds (stablecoins, HarmonyOS)
3. Global scalability (autonomous driving chips).