Welcome to Connecting the Dots, your weekly compass for navigating the fast-evolving crypto market. Whether you’re tracking macroeconomic shifts, regulatory updates, or institutional adoption, we break down the essentials to keep you informed.
This Week’s Highlights
1. Macro Update: Risk Premium Drops as Markets Rally
Equities surged to record highs amid geopolitical de-escalation, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq gaining 3.4% and 4.25%, respectively. Key drivers:
– Ceasefire agreements between Israel and Iran.
– US-China trade deals softening tariff fears.
– Core PCE inflation rose slightly (2.7%), but Fed rate cuts remain likely by September 2025.
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2. Crypto Native News
- Kraken secures MiCA license in the EU, expanding regulated services.
- Coinbase launches US Perpetual-Style Futures in July 2025.
- BitDigital shifts from BTC mining to Ethereum staking, raising $150M.
- Bakkt files to raise $1B for Bitcoin treasury expansion.
- Robinhood adds micro XRP and Solana futures.
3. Institutional Corner
- Hong Kong updates its digital asset policy (LEAP framework).
- Arizona advances a bill for a crypto reserve fund.
- US mortgage valuations to include cryptocurrency assets.
Market Deep Dive
Bull Market Momentum: What’s Next?
- BTC/Gold ratio eyes $125K if gold dips below $3,000.
- Dollar weakness boosts global liquidity, favoring high-beta assets like Bitcoin.
- Quarter-end liquidity drains may delay BTC’s breakout, but Q3 2025 looks bullish.
Liquidity Explosion: Trump’s Short-Term Debt Strategy
Former President Trump hinted at extending short-term treasury bills, echoing Yellen’s quasi-QE approach. This could:
– Reduce debt duration, freeing capital.
– Fuel crypto markets as liquidity surges.
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Charts of the Week
- Crypto VC funding may double to $18B in 2025 (PitchBook).
- LatAm adoption grows, led by Brazil, Argentina, and Colombia.
Top Crypto Jobs
| Role | Company |
|---|---|
| Head of DeFi | Web3Space UK |
| Crypto GTM Lead | Fuse Energy |
| Bitcoin Venture CEO | Cumberland Labs |
FAQ
Q: Why did Bitcoin lag equities this week?
A: Quarter-end liquidity withdrawals temporarily pressured crypto markets. Expect a rebound post-June.
Q: Is Ethereum a better bet than Bitcoin now?
A: Institutions like BitDigital are pivoting to ETH, but BTC remains the liquidity benchmark. Diversify wisely.
Q: How does MiCA impact Kraken?
A: The license lets Kraken operate across the EU, boosting trust and adoption.
Disclaimer: This newsletter is for educational purposes only. Crypto investments are volatile; always DYOR.