Bitcoin (BTC) continues to trade within a defined range, with sudden price drops causing significant losses for long-position traders. Despite these fluctuations, bullish sentiment remains robust, underpinned by strong fundamentals across the broader cryptocurrency market.
What Happened: A High-Stakes Bet on Bitcoin
On June 20, 2025, on-chain tracker Lookonchain revealed that ByBit’s top trader, AguilaTrades, has once again opened a massive long position on Bitcoin. The trade involves 3,854 BTC (worth $408 million), currently showing $3.2 million in unrealized gains.
This bold move follows two previous attempts where AguilaTrades faced substantial losses:
– $15.4 million loss within 10 days due to failing to lock in profits.
– A swing from $10 million unrealized gain to a $2.5 million drawdown in their most recent trade.
Now trading on Hyperliquid with 20x leverage (liquidation price: $103,330), the question arises: Will AguilaTrades secure profits this time or repeat past mistakes?
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Why This Matters: Macro Trends Favor Crypto Bulls
AguilaTrades’ aggressive reentry aligns with improving macroeconomic conditions for cryptocurrencies:
– El Salvador expanded Bitcoin adoption by installing BTC/USD kiosks at its international airport.
– Spot Bitcoin ETFs continue attracting institutional inflows.
– Today’s $5.8 trillion Bitcoin options expiry may create upward price pressure.
Whale vs. Retail: A Key Divergence
Santiment data highlights a growing divide:
| Wallet Type | BTC Held | 10-Day Change (June 2025) |
|——————-|————–|————————–|
| Whales (10+ BTC) | Accumulating | +231 wallets |
| Retail (0.001–10 BTC) | Exiting | -37,465 wallets |
Historically, this divergence signals impending bullish momentum. With BTC trading above $104,300, the market resembles past pre-rally phases.
What’s Next: Bitcoin’s Power-of-3 Pattern
Crypto analyst BitBull identifies a classic market structure:
1. Accumulation: January–February 2025
2. Manipulation: March–April 2025
3. Expansion: Current phase
“Post-options expiry consolidation could lead to a volatile breakout, targeting $130,000–$135,000.” — BitBull
Price Predictions for 2025
- $130,000–$135,000: Short-term target (BitBull).
- $205,097: Potential 120% surge if growth cycles persist (independent analyst).
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FAQs: Addressing Key Questions
Q1: Why did AguilaTrades lose $15.4 million previously?
A: Failure to secure profits during volatility, compounded by high leverage.
Q2: What’s driving Bitcoin’s bullish fundamentals?
A: Institutional ETF inflows, global adoption (e.g., El Salvador), and whale accumulation.
Q3: How reliable is the whale/retail divergence as an indicator?
A: Historically, it precedes major rallies, but always cross-verify with other metrics.
Q4: What risks do high-leverage trades like AguilaTrades’ pose?
A: Liquidation risks amplify losses if prices dip below $103,330 in this case.
Q5: Could Bitcoin really hit $205,097 in 2025?
A: Possible if adoption accelerates, but treat such predictions with caution.
Q6: How should traders approach Bitcoin’s current phase?
A: Monitor consolidation patterns, options activity, and institutional signals.
Final Thoughts
While AguilaTrades’ latest gamble captivates the market, Bitcoin’s trajectory hinges on broader adoption, institutional participation, and macro trends. Traders should balance optimism with disciplined risk management.
For real-time insights, leverage tools that track on-chain data and liquidity trends.