On Thursday, July 3, Bitcoin continued its upward momentum, trading steadily above $108,500 after breaking through a key resistance level. The cryptocurrency surged past $109,000, briefly retesting $105,200 before consolidating near the $110,000 mark—a price point last seen a month ago. Despite the bullish movement, professional traders remain cautious, signaling potential volatility ahead.
Key Market Drivers Behind Bitcoin’s Latest Rally
- Eurozone Money Supply Expansion
- The Eurozone’s M2 broad money supply hit a record high in April, growing 2.7% year-on-year.
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This aligns with the U.S. Federal Reserve’s monetary policies, creating liquidity tailwinds for Bitcoin.
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Weak U.S. Labor Data
- June’s ADP report revealed a loss of 33,000 private-sector jobs, hinting at economic softening.
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Such data often drives investors toward alternative assets like Bitcoin as a hedge.
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Trade War Escalation Risks
- President Trump’s threat to impose >30% tariffs on Japanese goods by July 9 has heightened market uncertainty.
- The EU is also preparing retaliatory measures, with internal debates over reducing reciprocal tariffs.
👉 Discover how macroeconomic trends impact crypto markets
Derivatives Market Signals Caution
Despite Bitcoin’s price hovering just 2% below its all-time high, derivatives metrics reveal subdued bullish sentiment:
| Indicator | Current Value | Bullish Threshold |
|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin Futures Premium | <5% | ≥5% |
| 25% Delta Skew | 0% | >6% (Bearish Signal) |
- Futures premiums remain below the neutral 5% threshold, reflecting trader hesitancy.
- Options markets show balanced risk perception, with no skew toward puts or calls.
Chinese Market Demand Wanes
Tether’s (USDT) 1% discount against the Chinese yuan—the widest since mid-May—suggests declining crypto demand in China. Stablecoin premiums/discounts often indicate regional market sentiment:
- Discounts: Investors cashing out (bearish).
- Premiums: Strong crypto demand (bullish).
July: A Month of Potential Volatility
Vetle Lunde of K33 Research highlights three critical dates that could trigger Bitcoin volatility:
- July 5: Trump’s expected signing of a $3.3 trillion expansionary budget bill (“Beautiful Big Bill”).
- July 9: Deadline for U.S.-Japan trade talks and potential tariff hikes.
- July 22: Anticipated executive order on U.S. Bitcoin reserve strategy.
“July is packed with event-driven volatility,” Lunde noted. However, he emphasized that current leverage levels are stable, reducing risks of abrupt sell-offs.
Standard Chartered’s Bold Prediction: $200,000 by 2025
Analyst Geoff Kendrick projects Bitcoin will see its “best-performing second half in history,” driven by:
- Institutional Demand: Spot ETF inflows and corporate treasury buying.
- Halving Cycle Breakout: Bitcoin has defied its post-halving price slump pattern.
Price Targets:
- Q3 2025: $135,000
- Q4 2025: $200,000
Kendrick cautioned about short-term fluctuations but expects sustained growth:
“ETF support and treasury purchases will override mid-cycle corrections.”
👉 Learn how institutions are shaping Bitcoin’s future
FAQ: Bitcoin’s 2025 Outlook
Q1: Why is Bitcoin rising despite trader caution?
A: Macroeconomic uncertainty (trade wars, weak jobs data) is driving safe-haven demand, but derivatives traders await clearer signals.
Q2: What’s the significance of Tether’s discount in China?
A: It suggests reduced local buying pressure, potentially tempering Bitcoin’s rally.
Q3: Could Trump’s policies really impact Bitcoin?
A: Yes. Expansionary fiscal policies and trade tensions may increase Bitcoin’s appeal as a hedge.
Q4: Is $200,000 realistic for Bitcoin in 2025?
A: Standard Chartered’s analysis hinges on institutional adoption surpassing previous halving cycles.
Q5: How should traders navigate July’s volatility?
A: Monitor leverage levels and key policy dates (July 9, 22) for tactical entries.
Q6: Are ETFs still buying Bitcoin?
A: Despite a $342 million outflow on July 2, long-term ETF inflows remain a bullish pillar.
Final Thoughts
Bitcoin’s surge toward $110,000 reflects a complex interplay of macro forces and institutional interest. While derivatives markets signal caution, analysts like Kendrick foresee unprecedented gains, with $200,000 as a viable 2025 target. July’s event-heavy calendar could amplify volatility, offering strategic opportunities for patient investors.