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Ten SEC-approved Bitcoin spot ETFs have completed 11 trading days as of January 26, with a total trading volume of $1.67 billion and net assets under management (AUM) reaching $26.74 billion, per SoSo Value data.
However, Grayscale’s GBTC consistently reported net outflows during this period. On January 26 alone, GBTC saw $255 million in outflows—its smallest single-day withdrawal since the launch day. Cumulatively, GBTC lost $5.041 billion over these 11 trading sessions.
In contrast, the other nine Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows on January 26, led by:
– Fidelity’s FBTC: ~$100 million
– BlackRock’s IBIT: $87.13 million
These two ETFs have been in a tight race for daily inflow leadership since their launch.
Why Grayscale’s GBTC Is Bleeding Funds
Analysts attribute GBTC’s outflows to:
1. Profit-taking by early investors after its conversion from a Bitcoin trust to an ETF.
2. Higher fees: GBTC charges a 1.5% management fee, starkly above competitors like BlackRock (0.25%) and Franklin Templeton (0.19%).
As Grayscale sells Bitcoin to meet redemptions, the market anticipates sell pressure. BTC dipped below $40,000 briefly but rebounded to $42,000 by January 28 as GBTC outflows slowed.
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Key Data on GBTC Outflows
- Largest single-day outflow: $640 million (January 22).
- Total Bitcoin sold by Grayscale (est.): 14,000 BTC/day at peak (Lookonchain data).
- FTX’s role: The bankrupt exchange liquidated 22 million GBTC shares ($1 billion), exacerbating outflows.
Market Impact and Recovery
While GBTC’s outflows initially pressured BTC prices, the trend is stabilizing:
– January 23: BTC hit $39,000 amid peak GBTC withdrawals.
– January 28: Rebound to $42,000 as outflows narrowed to $255 million.
Meanwhile, other ETFs thrive:
| ETF Provider | Net Inflows (11 Days) | AUM (January 26) |
|——————–|———————-|—————–|
| BlackRock (IBIT) | $2.173 billion | $2.19 billion |
| Fidelity (FBTC) | $1.925 billion | $1.94 billion |
Analyst Predictions: When Will Selling Pressure End?
- Galaxy Digital’s Michael Novogratz: Expects GBTC-driven volatility to resolve within 6 months, with most investors shifting to lower-fee ETFs.
- Quantitative estimate: At Grayscale’s current sell rate (~14,000 BTC/day), its 500,000 BTC reserves could deplete by mid-March.
Long-term outlook remains bullish:
– VanEck’s Matthew Sigel: Projects $40 billion流入 Bitcoin ETFs within 2 years.
– Bloomberg’s Eric Balchunas: Forecasts $50 billion.
FAQs
Q: Why is GBTC losing funds while other Bitcoin ETFs gain?
A: Early investors are cashing out profits, and GBTC’s 1.5% fee drives clients to cheaper alternatives like BlackRock (0.25%).
Q: How does GBTC’s selling affect Bitcoin’s price?
A: Grayscale’s Bitcoin sales create temporary sell pressure, but the market absorbs it as inflows into other ETFs grow.
Q: When will GBTC’s outflows stop?
A: Analysts predict stabilization between March (technical exhaustion) and 6 months (market rebalancing).
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Conclusion
Despite Grayscale’s short-term drag, Bitcoin ETFs collectively mark a watershed moment for institutional crypto adoption. As fee competition intensifies and GBTC’s selling abates, BTC’s price recovery underscores the market’s resilience.